Analysis | Progressives stare down primary challengers (2024)

Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pa.) has taken a harder line against Israel’s conduct in the war in Gaza than most House Democrats.

Today will determine whether Democratic primary voters punish her for it.

Lee, a freshman who represents Pittsburgh and its inner suburbs, is facing a challenge in today’s primary from Bhavini Patel, a community outreach manager, who is running as a more moderate Democrat. Patel’s TV ads have accused Lee of undermining President Biden and have tried to portray her as a radical.

The ads don’t mention Israel --- but that’s the subtext of the race.

A super PAC backing Patel has attacked Lee in its ads for giving Biden “the cold shoulder at the State of the Union” — without mentioning that Lee and other Democrats refused to stand and applaud the president in protest of his handling of the war in Gaza.

Lee was one of the first House Democrats to call for a cease-fire after Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel, and she was one of 37 House Democrats who voted on Saturday against sending military aid to Israel alongside humanitarian aid to Gaza.

Lee disputed on Sunday that the race is a referendum on her views on Israel.

“The hyper-focus that we have seen on Israel is because Israel has been used by right-wing — particularly MAGA — Republicans as a wedge issue,” Lee told Dylan and other reporters. “And when we play into that, when we play into the idea that that is the only issue that is important to voters … we do our communities a disservice, because people are looking for holistic representatives.”

The primary is in some ways a test of whether moderate Democrats can defeat members of the “Squad” and their allies, who have worked to push the Democratic Party further to the left.

Justice Democrats PAC, which helped elect several members of the Squad, has run ads in the race. A super PAC backing Patel, Moderate PAC, has been funded in part by an $800,000 contribution from Jeffrey Yass, a Republican megadonor.

The donors trying to sway the election are targeting “the people who threaten them the most first,” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) told the crowd at a rally for Lee on Sunday. “Summer Lee, top of the ticket right here. But it’s not just Summer.”

The same people are going after Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.), Cori Bush (D-Mo.) and Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), Ocasio-Cortez said. All three are members of the Squad facing primary challengers this year.

“Tuesday is the first of the rest of these races,” Ocasio-Cortez said. “So, Pittsburgh, what you’re doing on Tuesday is sending a message to the country.”

Two super PACs that have backed primary challengers who took on Democrats who have been critical of Israel in the past, meanwhile, chose not to get involved in Lee’s primary, but they’re eyeing others this year.

Mark Mellman, the president of Democratic Majority for Israel, which backs Democrats who support Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza, disputed that Lee’s race was a sign of how other primaries this year would turn out. DMFI did not endorse in the race and its super PAC spent no money.

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee — which spent millions of dollars in Democratic primaries in the midterms via its super PAC — didn’t back Patel, either. But it has endorsed Wesley Bell, who’s challenging Bush, and George Latimer, who’s running against Bowman.

United Democracy Project, AIPAC’s super PAC, is polling in 15 to 20 other races and is likely to spend in Bowman’s primaries in June and Bush’s primary in August, according to a person familiar with its strategy who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss its plans.

Bell and Latimer have raised much more money for their races than Patel. Bell raised nearly $1 million and Latimer raised $2.2 million in the first quarter of the year, while Patel raised less than $300,000, according to campaign finance filings.

Thanks to our colleague for Dylan Wells for contributing reporting. Follow her on X: @dylanewells.

The lobbying business traditionally slows in a presidential election year, but it doesn’t seem to have happened yet.

Some of K Street’s top firms reported record revenue in the first quarter of the year, according to newly filed disclosures shared with The Early. Here are the figures, compared with the fourth quarter of last year:

Other firms saw dips in revenue, although in some cases it was down only slightly from recent record highs:

The national security supplemental: The Senate will come into session today to take up the House-passed national security package that provides funding for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, and humanitarian aid for Gaza and elsewhere.

The Senate passed its version in February but must vote again because of differences in the two chambers’ bills. The House turned a portion of the Ukraine funding — the 20 percent that goes directly to the Ukrainian government — into a loan, and passed a fourth bill that seizes Russian assets and would ban TikTok if it isn’t sold by its Chinese parent.

The bills are combined into one in the Senate. It will hold a vote at 1 p.m. today to move on the measure.

Some Republicans and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) are demanding votes on amendments. If there is no agreement on whether any of the amendments will receive a vote, final passage is expected tomorrow night. The earlier package received 70 votes in February. The vote tally this week should be similar.

President Biden’s campaign now appears to be viewing Florida as a battleground state, as he heads to Tampa to give a speech on abortion.

In a new memo this morning ahead of Biden’s trip to Florida today, Biden campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez writes that abortion rights are a top issue in “Every Single Key Battleground” — a list that includes Florida along with the eight states that Biden visited in March.

It’s the latest indication that the campaign is making a play for Florida after the state’s Supreme Court allowed a six-week abortion ban to take effect while also allowing an abortion rights measure to appear on the ballot. We’re watching what Biden says about abortion.

Today, the Supreme Court will hear oral arguments for a labor case involving Starbucks, a Seattle-based coffee giant that has fired baristas for organizing unions in their local coffeehouses.

At issue is whether the standard that federal judges use to determine whether workers should get their job back, when requested by the National Labor Relations Board, should be stronger, our colleague Lauren Kaori Gurley reports.

Leigh Ann will interview former New Jersey governor and former Republican presidential candidate Chris Christie this evening at the University of Chicago Institute of Politics. We’re watching to see what he says about a lot of things, including former president Donald Trump’s trials and the future of the Republican Party. You can watch the event here.

The sixth day of Trump’s hush money trial will open with a hearing on whether the former president violated a court-issued gag order that prohibits him from attacking witnesses, prosecutors or family members of the judge and the Manhattan district attorney.

Manhattan prosecutors allege that Trump violated the gag order 10 times and are asking New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan to impose a fine of $1,000 for each violation.

Afterward, David Pecker, the former publisher of the National Enquirer and a longtime Trump ally, is expected to continue testimony about his relationship with Trump and the tactics he used to prevent negative stories from surfacing. He will also be cross-examined by Trump’s attorneys.

Here’s what else you need to know:

More on the prosecution’s first witness: Pecker “is alleged to have helped broker the payment to [adult-film actress Stormy Daniels] in his role at the time as chief executive of American Media Inc., the tabloid publisher,” Derek reports. “It was part of a practice known as ‘catch-and-kill,’ in which the National Enquirer sought to bury negative stories about Trump to help his presidential bid. Prosecutors say Pecker and a National Enquirer editor contacted Cohen — another key witness in the case — shortly before the 2016 election and told him Daniels was shopping around a story alleging a tryst with Trump. Soon after, Cohen reached out to Daniels offering the $130,000 payment.”

The defense’s strategy: In his opening statement, Trump lawyer Todd Blanche told the panel that the prosecutor’s case would collapse because it was built on Cohen’s lies, our colleagues Devlin Barrett, Shayna Jacobs, Tom Jackman and Hannah Knowles report. Blanche also slammed the prosecution’s attempt to characterize the payment as a “long-running conspiracy to influence the 2016 election.” “There’s nothing illegal about what happened between AMI, Mr. Pecker, Mr. Cohen and President Trump,” Blanche said.

Expect bank records, emails and Trump’s “own words” as evidence: “Colangelo said the jury will be convinced Cohen is telling the truth about the hush money payments because his statements will be ‘backed up by testimony from other witnesses’ as well as bank records, emails and text messages,” Devlin, Shayna, Tom and Hannah report. “Trump will provide some of the evidence that will prove his guilt, Colangelo said, because jurors will hear ‘Donald Trump’s own words on tape, in social media posts, in his own books and in video of his own speeches.’”

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I bet he’s not even that good